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ZEVRA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (ZVRA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered a clean top- and bottom-line beat: net revenue $20.40M vs S&P Global consensus $16.96M* and EPS ($0.06) vs ($0.19)*, driven by $17.1M from MIPLYFFA and continued French EAP reimbursements ($2.3M).
- Sequential momentum continued post-launch: product revenue scaled from $10.1M in Q4 (first commercial quarter for MIPLYFFA) to $17.1M in Q1; total net revenue rose ~70% q/q and ~6x y/y, while loss per share improved to ($0.06) from ($0.67) in Q4 and ($0.40) in Q1’24.
- Balance sheet significantly strengthened: $68.7M cash/equivalents/investments at 3/31/25; PRV sale closed for $150M gross ($148.3M net) on 4/1/25, implying pro forma liquidity of ~$217.0M; debt ~ $60.1M.
- Commercial KPIs: 122 cumulative MIPLYFFA prescription enrollment forms through Q1 (13 in Q1); payer coverage at 38% of covered lives; OLPRUVA coverage at 78% (5 new enrollments in Q1). EU MAA for MIPLYFFA remains on track for 2H 2025.
- Near-term stock drivers: pace of MIPLYFFA payer policy formalization and pull-through, sustained new patient adds and refills, EU MAA filing/milestones, and VEDS (celiprolol) Phase 3 enrollment acceleration to de-risk development timelines.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong launch execution and revenue mix: MIPLYFFA contributed $17.1M; total net revenue $20.4M beat consensus, with majority of enrolled patients already on therapy and refilling. “The launch is progressing well and exceeding our expectations.”
- Balance sheet de-risked with PRV sale: closed for $150M gross ($148.3M net), taking pro forma cash to ~$217.0M, enabling execution “independent from the capital markets.”
- Clinical and pipeline progress: Celiprolol DiSCOVER enrollment increased to 32; EU MAA for MIPLYFFA remains on track for 2H 2025; out-licensed deprioritized preclinical IP.
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin still weighed by non-cash amortization; operating margin negative: Q1 cost of goods sold included $1.6M intangible amortization; EBIT margin about -26% (improved but still negative).
- SG&A elevated to support launches: Q1 SG&A $19.5M, up $9.6M y/y, reflecting personnel and commercial activity; operating expense base requires scaling revenue to reach breakeven.
- OLPRUVA remains slow: only $0.1M net revenue and 5 enrollments in Q1 despite repositioning; management continues payer/formulary work to improve pull-through.
Financial Results
Headline P&L vs prior periods and estimates
Notes: EBIT Margin is derived from loss from operations / revenue. Consensus estimates marked with asterisks are Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Q1 2025 vs expectations: Revenue beat by ~$3.44M (~20%); EPS beat by ~$0.13. Q1 y/y: revenue up from $3.43M to $20.40M; EPS improved from ($0.40) to ($0.06).
Revenue composition (by source)
Operating expenses and key line items
Balance sheet and liquidity
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments: $68.7M at 3/31/25; pro forma $217.0M including PRV sale net proceeds received 4/1/25; Long-term debt ~$60.1M.
- Shares outstanding: 54.68M basic; fully diluted 67.90M as of 3/31/25.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We have exceeded our internal expectations for the MIPLYFFA launch and have enrolled over 1/3 of those diagnosed with Niemann-Pick Disease Type C or NPC in the United States.” — CEO Neil McFarlane
- “Combined with the net proceeds of $148.3 million from the sale of the PRV… cash, cash equivalents and investments would be $217.0 million… ample resources… independent from the capital markets.” — CFO LaDuane Clifton
- “Through the end of the first quarter, we have achieved 38% of covered lives… We have been able to secure reimbursement authorization for many of our patients through direct formulary coverage or via the medical exception process.” — CCO Josh Schafer
- “Filing of the MIPLYFFA MAA with the European Medicines Agency remains on track for the second half of 2025.” — Company statement
Q&A Highlights
- Reimbursement/coverage: Management emphasized early denials are typical but are largely overcome via medical exception; 38% covered lives achieved; majority of enrolled patients are already on drug, with high refill rates so far.
- Cadence of new patient starts: No formal guidance; focus shifted from EAP conversion to diagnosed and undiagnosed cohorts; inventory maintained at target days on hand.
- Net pricing/mix: Commercial dosing distribution mirrors EAP (more adult/heavier-weight dosing), supporting previously communicated average pricing assumptions.
- Celiprolol timeline: Enrollment increased to 32; strategies (genetic testing, COL3A1 centers) expected to accelerate adds, but no specific completion timing provided.
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $20.40M vs $16.96M*; EPS ($0.06) vs ($0.19)*; 7 estimates for both revenue and EPS. Beat driven by MIPLYFFA uptake and French EAP reimbursements.
- Implications: Consensus likely to move higher on MIPLYFFA trajectory and payer access progress; watch for updates on coverage policy formalizations and EU catalysts.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- MIPLYFFA is scaling faster than modeled: strong q/q product revenue build, majority of enrolled patients on therapy with refills, and 38% coverage provides a path to sustained pull-through.
- Quality of beat matters: revenue and EPS beats were operational (commercial traction), not solely driven by one-time items; operating leverage improved as EBIT margin tightened to ~-26% from ~-128% in Q4.
- Balance sheet a competitive advantage: PRV proceeds drive pro forma cash to ~$217M vs ~$60M debt, funding launches and pipeline without near-term equity needs.
- Pipeline diversification: celiprolol enrollment progress de-risks VEDS program; EU MAA for MIPLYFFA in 2H 2025 offers ex-US optionality/catalysts.
- OLPRUVA remains “prove-it”: modest contribution persists; management targeting specific adult/OTC segments and payer work—assume limited near-term revenue until evidence of inflection.
- Watch the payer narrative: further increases in covered lives, speed of medical exception approvals, and refill persistence are key leading indicators for revenue durability.
- Near-term setup: Continued commercial momentum into Q2, EU MAA progress, and updates on VEDS enrollment cadence are likely stock catalysts.
Appendix: Additional Detail
- Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: MIPLYFFA $17.1M; OLPRUVA $0.1M; French EAP $2.3M; AZSTARYS $0.9M.
- Non-cash items: Q1 COGS included $1.615M intangible amortization; stock-based comp within OpEx was $3.1M.
- Share count: 54,679,363 basic; 67,897,631 fully diluted at 3/31/25.
- Cash and debt: $68.7M cash/equivalents/investments at 3/31/25; pro forma $217.0M including PRV net; long-term debt ~$60.1M.